The Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan has presented a forecast for state budget revenues derived from the excise tax on sweet non-alcoholic beverages. It is expected that by the end of 2026, total receipts under this item will reach 1.3 trillion UZS.

For comparison, in 2025, this figure exceeded 1.2 trillion UZS, and in 2024, when the excise tax was first introduced (effective April 1), collections amounted to 634.1 billion UZS. The dynamics of the current year support the forecasts: in the first five months of 2026 alone, the budget has already received 498.5 billion UZS.

Along with the absolute growth in revenue, the share of this tax within the country's overall excise tax structure is also increasing. While in 2024 the tax on sugary drinks accounted for 3.56% of all excise revenues, its share grew to 6.17% in 2025 and settled at 6.07% for the January–May period of 2026.

The rapid growth in revenue from the excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Uzbekistan (from 634 billion to a projected 1.3 trillion UZS in two years) is driven not only by sustained high demand for the category but also by changes in tax regulation. The introduction of a progressive excise scale starting April 1, 2026 (ranging from 500 to 535 UZS per liter depending on sugar content), encourages manufacturers to adjust their recipes, reducing sugar or switching to artificial sweeteners. For ingredient suppliers and R&D departments of FMCG companies, this indicates a long-term trend towards developing "zero-calorie" formulas, as tax pressure on traditional sugary sodas will only continue to intensify.